PREMIER LEAGUE · MATCHDAY 7

Captain OVR Tracker

Six captains. Five conditions. One 121. Modelled from 7,000,000 match simulations, then updated throughout Matchday 7 as the fixtures are played.

Updated 8 Oct 2026 Live task results Community captain picks

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Pick one of the six captains. You can change your choice until the first fixture begins.

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Highest chance of 121

Bruno Fernandes

Three goal contributions is the gate. Bruno is modelled at 2.4%. Everybody else is effectively 0%. Combined with corners, penalties and a ~40% United win, he is the only name whose 121 chance is not rounding error.

MODELLED 121 0.43% ~1 in 233

Who reaches 121?

Chance of completing all five tasks in Matchday 7. Only Bruno has a non-zero path.

#01
Bruno Fernandes Manchester United · Leeds United vs Manchester United
0.43%
#02
Reece James Chelsea · Everton vs Chelsea
0.01%
#03
Virgil van Dijk Liverpool · Brentford vs Liverpool
0.01%
#04
John McGinn Aston Villa · Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
0.01%
#05
Lewis Dunk Brighton · Brighton vs Crystal Palace
0%
#06
Ethan Ampadu Leeds United · Leeds United vs Manchester United
0%

MATCHDAY RESULTS

Every task. Every captain.

Results are updated as the Matchday fixtures are played. A blank cell means the outcome is not available yet.

✓ Complete × Failed Pending

Captain 60+ MINWINCSSET PIECE3 G/A

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Reece James

🇵🇹 Bruno Fernandes

🇳🇱 Virgil van Dijk

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Lewis Dunk

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 John McGinn

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Ethan Ampadu

PRE-MATCH OUTLOOK

Chance by task

These percentages are pre-match estimates based on the fixture, form and available player data. The actual result comes from what happens on the pitch.

Captain 60+ MINWINCSSET PIECE3 G/A 121

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Reece James 49% 42% 29% 6.0% 0.03% 0.01%

🇵🇹 Bruno Fernandes 75% 40% 25% 23% 2.4% 0.43%

🇳🇱 Virgil van Dijk 82% 48% 27% 10% 0.03% 0.01%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Lewis Dunk 66% 57% 35% 5.5% 0.01% 0%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 John McGinn 62% 32% 21% 2.9% 0.11% 0.01%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Ethan Ampadu 70% 36% 23% 2.7% 0% 0%

NOT STARTED –

Everton vs Chelsea Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 BST · Hill Dickinson Stadium

NOT STARTED –

Brentford vs Liverpool Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 BST · Brentford Community Stadium

NOT STARTED –

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 BST · St James' Park

NOT STARTED –

Leeds United vs Manchester United Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 BST · Elland Road

NOT STARTED –

Brighton vs Crystal Palace Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 BST · Amex Stadium

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Chelsea

Reece James

Everton vs Chelsea

Fitness decides everything.

Task chances

60+ MIN

49%

WIN

42%

29%

SET PIECE

6.0%

3 G/A

0.03%

01 60+ MIN 49%

Mostly an availability number. The model gives him a 75% chance of being fit for Everton and 55% to go the full 90 once back. He has one yellow in 292 league minutes this season and four in 1,960 last season.

02 WIN 42%

Chelsea are about 42% to win, Everton 32%. Chelsea have lost two of five and Everton are unbeaten, so this is no formality.

03 CS 29%

Chelsea have conceded 12 in five league games with no clean sheet. The models still price Everton at about 1.25 goals, so the chance sits near 29%.

04 SET PIECE 6.0%

He is listed first for Chelsea's corners and crosses and took seven corners against Hull. The chance is held down by his minutes and by other Chelsea players sharing set-piece duty.

05 3 G/A 0.03%

A right-back with six goal involvements in 29 league games last season. Three in one match is close to impossible.

Read Reece James's route

Reece James is first on Chelsea's corner and cross list and Chelsea are favourites at Everton, but he has a recurring hamstring problem. He missed the 3-0 defeat at Brentford and is only pencilled in to return against Bournemouth on 10 October. If he is declared fit and starts that game, his minutes chance moves from about 49% to about 69%.

Chelsea: W2 D1 L2, 12 conceded. Everton: W2 D3 L0.

Hamstring relapse on 10 October would end his chances.
Alonso may manage his minutes after three weeks out.
Chelsea have not kept a clean sheet this season.

If he starts on 10 October and looks sharp, his numbers move up by roughly 20 points on the first condition.

League 2026-274 games, 292 minutes, 1 yellowLeague 2025-262 goals, 4 assists, 4 yellows, 1,960 minutesCorners7 against Hull on 12 SepInjuryHamstring, return pencilled for 10 Oct

🇵🇹 Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes

Leeds United vs Manchester United

The only captain with a route to 121.

Task chances

60+ MIN

75%

WIN

40%

25%

SET PIECE

23%

3 G/A

2.4%

01 60+ MIN 75%

Five starts and five full 90s this season. The risk is a knock he has been managing since the Champions League win over Sabah. He sat out Portugal's game in Norway as a precaution, then played against Denmark. His card record is light, so fitness is the main worry.

02 WIN 40%

Slight favourites at Elland Road in the pre-match projections, about 40% against 36% for Leeds. United have gone three league games without a win.

03 CS 25%

United have not kept a clean sheet in five league games, and Leeds have scored in four of their five. The model gives Leeds about 1.4 expected goals.

04 SET PIECE 23%

The best chance in the group by a distance. He has taken 23 of United's 36 corners this season, delivers the free kicks and takes the penalties. Ten of his 20 assists last season came from set pieces.

05 3 G/A 2.4%

He averaged 0.86 league goal involvements a game last season and has 4 in 5 this season. Three in one match needs United to score at least three, so this is the condition that decides whether 121 is real. Roughly 1 in 40.

Read Bruno Fernandes's route

Bruno is the one captain whose profile fits all five conditions. He takes United's corners and penalties, and last season he was involved in 30 league goals in 35 games. The catch is the same for everyone: 121 needs a clean sheet and three goal contributions, which means United winning by three or more without conceding. He plays away at Leeds, where the public models make the game close to even.

Manchester United: W1 D2 L2, no clean sheet. Leeds: W2 D3 L0, three conceded.

A managed knock, with United short in other positions.
No clean sheet in five league games this season.
A Leeds win closes the win and clean sheet conditions together.

A United win to nil would clear three conditions at once.

League 2026-273 goals, 1 assist, 5 startsLeague 2025-269 goals, 21 assists, 35 gamesCorners taken23 of 36 this seasonCards3 yellows in 2,257 minutes (to mid-March 2026)

🇳🇱 Liverpool

Virgil van Dijk

Brentford vs Liverpool

The safest floor on the board.

Task chances

60+ MIN

82%

WIN

48%

27%

SET PIECE

10%

3 G/A

0.03%

01 60+ MIN 82%

He has played every minute of Liverpool's five league games and all 38 last season, with four yellows in 3,420 minutes. The one real risk is a rest day for a 35-year-old.

02 WIN 48%

Liverpool are about 49% to win at Brentford, who are unbeaten but have drawn three of five.

03 CS 27%

Three clean sheets in five league games this season. Brentford still carry about 1.3 expected goals at home, so the number stays under 30%.

04 SET PIECE 10%

He is a header target on corners, not a taker. His chance is his share of Liverpool's set-piece goals, which the model puts at about one in five.

05 3 G/A 0.03%

Centre-backs do not produce three involvements in a match. Effectively zero.

Read Virgil van Dijk's route

Van Dijk has played every minute of Liverpool's league season, rarely gets booked and plays for the side that is favourite away at Brentford. He is a realistic target for 118 or 119, but there is no path to three goal contributions.

Liverpool: W2 D3 L0, three clean sheets. Brentford: W2 D3 L0.

Iraola could rest him after five full matches.
Liverpool have drawn three of their five league games.
Brentford are unbeaten and beat Chelsea 3-0 before the break.

A narrow win to nil with a header from a corner takes him to 120.

League 2026-275 starts, 450 minutes, 1 yellowLeague 2025-2638 games, 3,420 minutes, 4 yellowsClean sheets3 in 5 league games for LiverpoolAge35

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Brighton

Lewis Dunk

Brighton vs Crystal Palace

Best home fixture, worst card record.

Task chances

60+ MIN

66%

WIN

57%

35%

SET PIECE

5.5%

3 G/A

0.01%

01 60+ MIN 66%

Starting is not in doubt. Staying unbooked is: 10 yellows in 33 league games last season means about one match in four ends with a card for him.

02 WIN 57%

The best win chance of the six, at home to a Palace side with one league win in five.

03 CS 35%

The highest in the group. Palace's expected goals are the lowest of any opponent here, around one. Brighton did concede three at Chelsea, so it is not a lock.

04 SET PIECE 5.5%

His route is a header from a corner or free kick, which is how most of his Premier League goals have come. He scores about one a season, so even with Brighton scoring freely the chance is small.

05 3 G/A 0.01%

Brighton are scoring freely, but Dunk takes a very small share of those goals. Three involvements is out of reach.

Read Lewis Dunk's route

The best home fixture and the best clean-sheet chance, wrapped around the worst card record in the group. Brighton are third, have scored 16 in five and face a Palace side that has won one of five. Dunk should start, so the question is whether he stays out of the book: he picked up 10 yellows in 33 league games last season.

Brighton: W3 D1 L1, 16 scored. Palace: W1 D1 L3.

Highest card rate of the six.
He is 34, so a late rest is possible if the game is won early.
Brighton have conceded in four of five league games.

Win to nil without a booking is three conditions, and the model gives that route a real chance.

League 2026-274 starts, 1 goal, 1 yellow (to 13 Sep)League 2025-2633 games, 1 goal, 10 yellowsBrighton league form16 scored, 5 conceded in 5Age34

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Aston Villa

John McGinn

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

A tough fixture with a thin route.

Task chances

60+ MIN

62%

WIN

32%

21%

SET PIECE

2.9%

3 G/A

0.11%

01 60+ MIN 62%

Five starts in five, 87 minutes on average, so the 60-minute mark is likely. Two yellows in five league games this season, at Brighton and against Arsenal, drag the chance down.

02 WIN 32%

Villa are the underdogs at St James' Park, about 32% against 43% for Newcastle.

03 CS 21%

Newcastle carry about 1.55 expected goals, the highest opposition figure for any captain here, and Villa have conceded nine in five league games.

04 SET PIECE 2.9%

Modelled as a box runner rather than a deliverer, so he needs a second ball or a knock-down to fall to him.

05 3 G/A 0.11%

The most productive of the non-Bruno group, with nine goals and assists in 30 league games last season. Villa's low expected goals still keep three in one match close to zero.

Read John McGinn's route

Villa have one win in five and a minus five goal difference, and they travel to a Newcastle side that is favoured in the pre-match projections. McGinn starts every game and has two assists already, but his card record and Villa's defence cap four of the five conditions.

Aston Villa: W1 D1 L3, nine conceded. Newcastle: W2 D2 L1.

Villa have conceded nine in their last five league games.
Two yellows already this season.
Villa also play in the Champions League, so rotation is possible.

A Villa away win would be a shock, and it would open the clean sheet as well.

League 2026-275 starts, 436 minutes, 2 assists, 2 yellowsLeague 2025-2630 games, 5 goals, 4 assists, 5 yellowsVilla league formW1 D1 L3, goal difference -5Age31

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Leeds United

Ethan Ampadu

Leeds United vs Manchester United

A floor pick with no upside.

Task chances

60+ MIN

70%

WIN

36%

23%

SET PIECE

2.7%

3 G/A

01 60+ MIN 70%

Five starts and five full 90s. Last season he picked up 10 yellows in 35 league games, and a heated fixture against United raises the chance of a card.

02 WIN 36%

Leeds are about 36% to win at home, a shade behind United's 40%. Bruno and Ampadu play each other, so only one of them can collect this condition.

03 CS 23%

Leeds have two clean sheets in five league games, against Forest and Palace, and have conceded three in total. A 0-0 would give Ampadu and Bruno one each.

04 SET PIECE 2.7%

He sits in front of the back line and is not modelled as a corner or free-kick taker, so the chance is small.

05 3 G/A 0%

One goal and one assist in 35 league games last season.

Read Ethan Ampadu's route

Ampadu starts and finishes every game for a Leeds side that is unbeaten, so the first three conditions are live. His set-piece and goal-involvement numbers are close to zero, and a 10-yellow season means the card is always in play.

Leeds: W2 D3 L0, three conceded. Manchester United: W1 D2 L2.

Highest card rate among the midfielders in the group.
Leeds draw a lot, with three draws in five.
Almost no route to the last two conditions.

A Leeds win to nil without a card gets him to 119, which is as far as he can realistically go.

League 2026-275 starts, 450 minutes, no cards yetLeague 2025-2635 games, 3,123 minutes, 10 yellowsLeeds league form7 scored, 3 conceded in 5RoleHolding midfielder

Condition five decides everything

Three goal contributions is the hardest task by a wide margin. Bruno Fernandes has about a 2.4% chance of it and nobody else is above 0.2%. That one condition is why 121 is a long shot for the whole board.

Win and clean sheet land together

Both come from the same scoreline. Once a club keeps a clean sheet, it wins between 73% and 85% of the time, depending on how many goals it is expected to score. Treat them as one big result rather than two coin flips.

Plan for 119, not 121

Bruno Fernandes, Virgil van Dijk and Lewis Dunk are level at roughly 22% to reach 119 or better. For the defenders, the best realistic finish is 120, and that sits between 1% and 2.5%.